“These are global challenges… these are not unique to the India story. While these factors are creating headwinds, they do not alter the structural story,” Fraser told ET. “If you think about having your cake and eating it, this cake has been baked by India. The icing may be some of the global supply chain elements, and we could do with a little more of it.”
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India is among the few emerging markets getting pummelled by global investors, as the oil price spike triggered by the US-Iran war is likely to destabilise its macroeconomic position. The rupee has plunged to historic lows and bond yields are climbing amid fears of widening fiscal and current account deficits.
The recent pullback by foreign portfolio investors reflects a pause as they reassess financial assets valuations, geopolitical risks and monetary policy, Fraser said.
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“Valuations are quite high in India versus some alternatives,” she said. “But it’s important to distinguish between valuations and fundamentals. That doesn’t mean Indian economy is worse… just that valuations are different.” The world is becoming multipolar, a shift that will benefit India, Fraser said. She also flagged cybersecurity as a big risk.