Artificial intelligence is often blamed for driving up energy use and worsening climate change, but new research suggests its overall impact on global emissions is surprisingly small. The findings even point to potential environmental and economic benefits as AI continues to expand.
Researchers from the University of Waterloo and the Georgia Institute of Technology analyzed data from across the U.S. economy alongside estimates of how widely AI is being used in different industries. Their goal was to understand what might happen to energy use and emissions if AI adoption keeps growing at its current pace.
Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that 83 percent of the U.S. economy still relies on fossil fuels like petroleum, coal and natural gas, all of which produce greenhouse gases when burned. The researchers found that AI-related electricity use in the U.S. is comparable to the total energy consumption of Iceland. Even so, this increase is too small to significantly affect emissions at the national or global level.
Local Effects Near Data Centers
“It is important to note that the increase in energy use is not going to be uniform. It’s going to be felt more in the places where electricity is produced to power the data centers,” said Dr. Juan Moreno-Cruz, a professor in the Faculty of Environment at Waterloo and Canada Research Chair in Energy Transitions. “If you look at that energy from the local perspective, that’s a big deal because some places could see double the amount of electricity output and emissions. But at a larger scale, AI’s use of energy won’t be noticeable.”
The study did not focus on how local economies might be affected in regions where data centers are concentrated, but the broader findings remain encouraging.
AI as a Potential Climate Solution
“For people who believe that the use of AI will be a major problem for the climate and think we should avoid it, we’re offering a different perspective,” Moreno-Cruz said. “The effects on climate are not that significant, and we can use AI to develop green technologies or to improve existing ones.”
To reach these conclusions, Moreno-Cruz and fellow environmental economist Dr. Anthony Harding evaluated different sectors of the economy, the types of jobs within them, and how many of those roles could be handled by AI.
The researchers plan to expand their analysis to other countries to better understand how AI adoption could influence energy use and emissions worldwide.
The study, “Watts and Bots: The Energy Implications of AI Adoption,” was published in Environmental Research Letters.