A conservation approach once praised as a global model for helping people and predators coexist may be losing ground because of a lack of long-term government support, according to new research.
In 2015, Sweden drew international attention when researchers reported that its Conservation Performance Payment (CPP) program, the oldest initiative of its kind, had helped boost populations of the endangered wolverine.
More than a decade later, however, that early success appears increasingly difficult to maintain. The program was designed to benefit both wolverines and the Indigenous Sámi reindeer herders who share the landscape with them. New findings suggest that the arrangement is under growing strain.
Researchers from the University of York and the Swedish Agricultural University found that documented wolverine numbers have dropped sharply in parts of northern Sweden where the species was once strongest. At the same time, government payments have remained unchanged for two decades, and many local communities say they no longer trust the system.
The findings, published in Conservation Letters, suggest that governments risk undermining conservation gains when they fail to address the long-term financial and social costs that wildlife recovery can place on local residents.
A Revolutionary Approach to Predator Conservation
Dr. Hanna Pettersson of the University of York’s Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity explained how the program differed from traditional compensation systems.
“Implemented in 1996, the scheme was at the time revolutionary. Instead of paying reindeer herders for damages caused by predators, the government paid communities for coexisting with them, whether or not damage actually occurs.
“The idea is to tie an income to the presence of the predator, providing an incentive to find ways to live alongside them, thus decreasing conflicts and improving social justice.
“Initial findings showed encouraging results of the scheme, namely a marked increase of the wolverine population, but after studying 30 years of data from the scheme, we have shown that this success has not been sustained.”
To investigate the program’s long-term impact, Dr. Pettersson accompanied wildlife rangers working in the Arctic. The researchers also combined ecological monitoring records with interviews conducted in Norrbotten, Sweden’s northernmost county.
Their results point to growing challenges within the program and raise broader concerns for conservation efforts elsewhere.
Wolverine Numbers Decline in Northern Sweden
The study found that wolverines are spreading into southern parts of Sweden while declining in regions that historically supported the largest populations.
In the early 2000s, Norrbotten accounted for roughly two-thirds of all documented wolverine reproductions in Sweden. Today, that figure has fallen to less than one-third, and the county regularly fails to meet minimum conservation targets.
Researchers say stagnant funding has become a major issue.
Dr. Pettersson said: “The payments to the reindeer herders from the scheme have remained frozen at 200,000 SEK per predator reproduction since 2002, but due to rising costs and meat prices, the real value of the payment has approximately halved over the last two decades.
“While the Sámi Parliament calculates the legal payout should be at least 480,000 SEK to comply with the law, the government offered only a 25,000 SEK increase in 2024.”
Climate Change and Tracking Challenges
The research also identified climate change as an additional obstacle. Shifting snow conditions across the Arctic have made wolverine tracks harder to detect and document.
As a result, official counts may not fully reflect the true number of animals. Researchers noted that many apparent wolverine sightings were rejected because they did not satisfy strict documentation requirements.
According to Dr. Pettersson, these challenges illustrate the need for governments to adapt conservation programs as conditions change.
“If a government fails to adapt payments to rising costs of coexistence, the burden is shifted onto local, often marginalized, communities, who in this case are already straining under the cumulative impacts of mining, forestry, and climate change.
“It is a warning sign for other global conservation efforts. Governments must plan ahead and adapt interventions to changing conditions and local needs.”