India has implemented multiple strategies to address early marriage and high fertility, primarily through two policy approaches. The first approach has focused on increasing girls’ participation in education. Initiatives such as the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (2001) targeted universal elementary education, while the Right to Education Act (2009) established schooling as a fundamental right for all children aged 6 to 14. The Mid-Day Meal Scheme provided nutritional incentives to encourage school attendance. More recent programmes, including Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana, and West Bengal’s Kanyashree Prakalpa, have further promoted girls’ education and delayed marriage.
The second policy approach has addressed family size and the institution of marriage directly. India introduced the world’s first national family planning programme in 1952. The Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006, established the minimum legal age of marriage for women at 18, with a subsequent proposal in 2021 to increase this to 21.
Both policy streams are based on the premise that education, marriage, and family size are interrelated, forming a ‘virtuous cycle’ in which increased education delays marriage, reduces fertility, and enhances women’s empowerment, while lower fertility enables greater investment in each child’s education. The latest round of the National Family Health Survey, NFHS-6 (2023-24) in comparison with the previous round, NFHS-5 (2019-21), provides an opportunity to evaluate this relationship using recent State-level data.
Growth in schooling
Between the two surveys, women’s schooling continued to rise almost everywhere. The share of women with 10 or more years of education increased in 33 of 35 States and Union Territories. And in 27 of the 35, the two indicators moved exactly as the virtuous cycle story predicts: schooling up, early marriage down. Across States, the correlation between changes in women’s schooling and early marriage is −0.40, a statistically significant association (p = 0.018). States where girls stayed in school longer are, on average, the States where early marriage fell fastest.
Change in women’s 10+ years of schooling vs change in early marriage, NFHS-5 to NFHS-6, by State/UT. Gold point = India.
The decline in early marriage at the State level is consistent with the overall trend. Nationally, the proportion of women marrying before age 18 decreased from 23.3% to 20.1% between the two survey rounds. Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu (10 percentage points) and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (7.4 percentage points) showed reductions. They were followed by Assam, Bihar, and Tripura (States with high rates of child marriage), each of which recorded declines of 6 percentage points or more. On the other hand, some States experienced an increase: Nagaland rose by 4.6 percentage points, representing the largest reversal, whereas Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Delhi showed more modest increases.
Early marriage among women (aged 20–24, married before 18), NFHS-5 vs NFHS-6, by State/UT.
The schooling-fertility link
Research has consistently linked schooling and fertility, with the trend being an increase in schooling leading to a decrease in fertility. However, data from NFHS-5 and NFHS-6 follow a different path. It reveals that the association between changes in schooling and total fertility (children per woman) is weak and statistically insignificant (correlation coefficient = −0.10, p = 0.57). States with substantial increases in schooling, such as eight or nine percentage points, do not consistently display corresponding declines in fertility compared to States with minimal changes in schooling. Only 12 of 35 states show the anticipated pattern of increased schooling accompanied by reduced fertility.
Change in women’s 10+ years of schooling vs. change in total fertility rate, NFHS-5 to NFHS-6, by State/UT. Gold point = India.
Why? The limited change in fertility rates is attributable to the near completion of India’s fertility transition. The national average is 2.0 children per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. The Sample Registration System reported a national total fertility rate of 1.9. Only five States and UTs remain above the replacement level. This list has Bihar (2.7), followed by Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Lakshadweep (each at 2.2). All other States and UTs are at or below the replacement threshold, with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab, and several others reporting rates between 1.6 and 1.8.
Total fertility rate by State/UT, NFHS-6, with NFHS-5 values for reference
With the majority of States having completed the fertility transition, there is limited scope for further reductions in fertility, including those potentially attributable to increased schooling. However, the cross-sectional association between women’s education and fertility remains evident. Analysis of the most recent data indicates that States with higher proportions of women with ten or more years of schooling continue to show lower total fertility rates. The relationship persists at the same levels, though it is no longer evident in recent changes.
Women with 10+ years of schooling vs total fertility rate, NFHS-6 cross-section, by State/UT.
Overall, India’s fertility transition is nearly complete, with 30 out of 35 states and Union Territories at or below replacement fertility. As a result, there is little remaining variation in fertility outcomes. Education remains important, primarily by delaying the age at marriage. Early marriage persists, with one in five young women marrying before age eighteen, according to the latest NFHS data.
Now, the main concern is the timing of marriage. Each additional year of schooling increases the time before marriage, thus providing greater opportunity for personal development, education, and employment before entering married life. In the context of World Population Day, the length of time women spend before marriage is a key indicator. The focus has shifted from the number of children to the number of years women can pursue their aspirations before marriage.
(Sources: NFHS-5 (2019–21) and NFHS-6 (2023–24) fact sheets, Government of India. The Sample Registration System (SRS 2024) reports a national TFR of 1.9; SRS and NFHS differ in their methods and reference periods and are presented as independent sources. All correlations are simple state-level associations (n = 35), not causal estimates. Manipur was not surveyed in NFHS-6 and is excluded from analysis.)
(Karan Babbar is an assistant professor of economics at XLRI Jamshedpur. phd17karanb@iima.ac.in; Raunak Maitra is a master’s student at the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram. maitra.raunak1810@gmail.com)
Published – July 11, 2026 10:48 am IST