By Franziska Müller
Published on
Space exploration sometimes has consequences that are not immediately apparent. According to NASA scientists, a piece of rocket could collide with the Moon in early August.
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In January 2025, around a year and a half ago, Elon Musk’s company SpaceX launched its “Falcon 9” rocket, sending two landers to the Moon. Now, US astronomer Bill Gray and the US space agency NASA, quoted by the news agency dpa, warn that an upper stage of the rocket could accidentally hit the Moon. Calculations suggest the impact is due to occur on 5 August.
The space portal Space.com reports that a panel discussion with experts on the impending impact was held in early July. It was organised by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI). The Moon is a dynamic environment, lunar observer Brian Day told the site; changes and impacts do occur.
Will the collision with the Moon be visible from Earth?
Experts are currently debating whether the collision will be visible from Earth. From Earth’s perspective, the rocket component could strike right at the edge of the lunar disc. The dust cloud created in the process could be illuminated by the Sun and thus become visible, the site adds.
The upper stage of the “Falcon 9” rocket weighs around four tonnes. According to the portal Space.com, the piece of space debris is currently travelling at more than two kilometres per second.
NASA considers the chances of observing the impact from Earth to be low. “I think it will be very, very hard to see, if not impossible,” said William Cooke, a manager at the US space agency, according to the news agency dpa.
The calculation for the possible collision with the Moon was published back in September. It was carried out by astronomer Bill Gray of Project Pluto. He developed the Guide astronomy software, which allows amateur and professional astronomers to track near-Earth objects in space. His software predicted an impact on the Moon on 5 August 2026. Earlier calculations had even suggested that a collision in March was possible, as National Geographic also reported. He says the impact does not pose any danger.
Unplanned impacts caused by space debris
However, with the growing volume of space debris, such incidents could become more frequent.
A similar incident already occurred four years ago. Images from the “Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter” probe showed space debris hitting the Moon. NASA scientists suspected a piece of an old Chinese rocket was behind the collision, but China rejected these reports. Impacts on the Moon also occur repeatedly for research purposes, though in those cases they are planned.
The predicted collision on 5 August 2026 was not planned. Elon Musk’s company has not yet responded to a dpa request for comment.