Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia, ousted Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters, warning that Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favor.
Fedorov, a young reformer whose dismissal last month sparked weeks of protests, said Ukraine lacked any overall vision for how to win the four-year-old conflict and was hobbled by its failure to innovate.
Ingrained corruption and patronage networks, as well as a lack of political independence in government institutions, were also holding the country back, he said in an interview.
“I think that there’s now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory, but it looks as though we’re gradually, slowly losing,” Fedorov said in a marked departure from Kyiv’s official rhetoric.
Ukraine still had “every chance” to win but urgently needed a plan to end the war, he added.
Ukraine’s presidential office said in response to Fedorov’s comments that he had been positive about the conduct of the war when he was at the ministry and the only thing that had changed was his personal status.
LACK OF INTERCEPTORS HINDERS UKRAINE
Russia is hammering Ukrainian factories and warehouses with dozens of ballistic missiles a month, which Ukraine is mostly unable to take down as interceptors run low. Although Russia is gaining less ground than last year, it is still slowly crawling forward in the Donbas, while Ukraine’s sparse frontline infantry dugouts are manned mostly by unmotivated conscripts.
Ukraine, in turn, has ramped up its own drone and missile attacks deep into Russia, hitting some key military factories, causing serious damage to oil refineries and creating nationwide fuel shortages.
A poll conducted at the end of July found 82% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine would win, although most expected fighting to carry on into 2027 or later.
Fedorov, 35, was fired six months after his appointment, having initiated reforms around procurement and mobilisation that put him on a collision course with the military establishment and political rivals.
Last week, he rocked Ukrainian politics by becoming the first major political figure to demand wartime elections, decrying a “systemic” crisis of governance.
In an interview on Monday, he emphasised the importance of developing autonomous drones guided by artificial intelligence, cheap interceptor missiles to stop Russia’s air attacks and Ukraine’s own ballistic missile program to turn the tide of the war.
Ukrainian manufacturers are already working on those technologies, but Fedorov said the country needed a joined-up strategy to maximise their effect once deployed.
He laid out a vision for a frontline covered by electronic sensors to detect enemies, with drones on land and in the air to minimise human presence.
“Technologies exist already which could completely stop the Russians, but our absence of vision … means we do not apply them,” he said.
Fedorov criticised the wasted potential and inefficiency of the Ukrainian state, which he said was operating at “5% effectiveness.”
BUDGET DEFICIT BLAME GAME
Fedorov says he was a driving force behind a drone campaign this year targeting Russia’s fuel and military logistics in the occupied part of southern Ukraine, causing problems for Moscow’s forces on the frontline.
He said there was still a window of opportunity of a few months to press ahead with that operation, seeking to isolate Russian-occupied Crimea, before Russia works out how to respond to Ukraine’s tactics.
This strike campaign was a significant factor in shifting narratives about Ukraine’s prospects.
Fedorov previously said the campaign’s success was aided by his decision to front-load spending, which had been earmarked for the second half of 2026.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — Fedorov’s former political patron turned rival — said at the weekend that bringing spending forward had left a $27 billion hole in the ministry’s budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution.
Fedorov said he had no idea where Zelenskiy got this figure, arguing his ministry devised a spending plan that relied on savings from new procurement tenders and international support.
Fedorov alleged that when he arrived at the defense ministry, he found department heads appointed at the behest of Ukrainian defense companies to lobby for their interests.
“By the end of the year, the budget deficit under our planning was around five billion dollars, and we knew where we would get it,” he said. “Perhaps the plan changed and new projects emerged that require such a budget.”
ELECTION CALL
Fedorov’s call for elections was met with dismay from many Ukrainians and polls have consistently shown low enthusiasm for wartime elections.
Zelenskiy condemned Fedorov’s election call, arguing it could destroy Ukraine as it fights off Russia.
Ukraine has, since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, been under martial law which bans elections for security reasons.
The president said Fedorov may be being pushed by outside forces to call for elections. Fedorov staunchly denied this.
While there are enormous logistical challenges to holding wartime elections, Fedorov said that Ukraine would find innovative solutions. However, he said it was too early to say if he would run for the presidency.
In the meantime, Fedorov plans to split his time between his push to restore Ukraine’s elections and ventures focused on innovative military technologies, including an investment fund for which he plans to raise capital during an upcoming trip to the U.S.