Less than a year before the most important French presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic, the phoney war is almost over. On 7 July, a court will decide whether to uphold Marine Le Pen’s appeal against a fraud conviction and a five-year ban from public office. Should she lose, her party’s 30‑year‑old president, Jordan Bardella, will be confirmed as Rassemblement National’s candidate and the frontrunner in the race.
Voters will need to wait considerably longer, however, for clarity over who will oppose the far right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the veteran leader of the radical-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), has already announced a fourth tilt at the presidency. But as Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of a second term blighted by unforced errors, multiple egos are jostling on the centre-left and the centre-right, amid a frantic weighing of the odds.
The number of potential runners is so far estimated to be 35. Not all will take the plunge, but months of jockeying for position will make for an unedifying spectacle in a country where levels of trust in politics are at rock bottom. Alarmingly, a large number of candidacies could also turn a nightmare scenario into a plausible one.
Early polling data suggests a vote split multiple ways could enable Mr Mélenchon to squeeze into second place behind Mr Bardella or Ms Le Pen in the first round, thereby qualifying for the runoff. The 74-year‑old Mr Mélenchon is a formidable campaigner with loyal support among the young, in the banlieues, and among minority-ethnic voters. But he is also one of the most divisive politicians in France; mobilising a “republican front” around him to see off the far-right threat would be problematic. One survey has estimated that in a second-round contest with the LFI leader, Mr Bardella would win more than 70% of votes.
The spectre of a far-right landslide should be concentrating minds more than it seems to have done. Two of Mr Macron’s long list of former prime ministers, Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, will compete on a centrist agenda. Mr Attal, in particular, risks being tainted by association with a president languishing on 75%-plus disapproval ratings. On the centre-right, three candidates have already declared and more are likely to follow. But in the absence of official primary contests, a winnowing-down process has yet to be agreed.
At the progressive end of the spectrum, the picture is equally confused. Internal feuding in the Socialist party over the selection process reflects strategic dilemmas over whether to tack left or towards the centre. A host of potential aspirants, including the ex-president François Hollande, are mulling their options. If a centre-left candidate is to have any chance of making the runoff, the Socialists, Greens and other smaller parties will surely need to unite behind a candidate in a way they failed to in the two previous presidential elections. But no centre-left “primary” process has yet been agreed.
It is an inauspicious beginning to a campaign whose outcome will be crucial in determining Europe’s future as well as that of France. Victory next May for the Eurosceptic nationalist far right, in the country that, alongside Germany, has driven the process of European Union integration, would be a turning point. So far, mainstream politicians are failing to live up to the gravity of the moment.