Tesla released its company-compiled delivery consensus for the second quarter of 2026, and Wall Street analysts now expect the automaker to deliver 406,024 vehicles.
That would be just 5.7% growth over the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q2 2025 — a modest recovery for a company that has posted two consecutive years of declining sales.
What the consensus says
The figures come from Tesla’s own investor relations page, where the company periodically publishes a consensus it compiles from sell-side analysts. The Q2 2026 estimate was drawn from 22 analysts, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wedbush, Barclays, and UBS.
Tesla is careful to note that it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts.” The Q1 2026 figures in the table are actuals, while everything from Q2 2026 onward is consensus estimate.
The headline number is 406,024 total deliveries for the quarter, with a median estimate of 408,609. Of that, analysts expect 392,625 Model 3 and Model Y units, plus 12,978 from “all other models” — the bucket that includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck.
| Q1-2026 | Q2-2026 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
| Model 3/Y deliveries | 341,893 | 392,625 | 1,595,103 | 1,727,302 | 1,856,752 | 2,057,565 | 2,225,059 |
| All other models | 16,130 | 12,978 | 56,123 | 91,882 | 179,295 | 260,406 | 362,663 |
| Total deliveries | 358,023 | 406,024 | 1,654,808 | 1,824,568 | 2,065,389 | 2,365,715 | 2,649,054 |
| Median | 408,609 | 1,667,842 | 1,809,297 | 1,971,762 | 2,167,318 | 2,415,969 | |
| Standard deviation | 14,922 | 65,814 | 169,564 | 379,522 | 619,641 | 760,060 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 22 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 17 | |
| Energy Storage Deployments (GWh) | 8.8 | 13.8 | 57.9 | 79.8 | 99.9 | 122.1 | 150.1 |
| Median | 13.9 | 56.0 | 75.0 | 98.9 | 125.1 | 150.7 | |
| Standard deviation | 2.5 | 6.5 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 15.9 | 30.7 | |
| Number of estimates provided | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
That “other models” estimate is telling. Analysts see Tesla delivering fewer than 13,000 of its higher-margin and newer vehicles combined in the quarter, down from 16,130 in Q1 2026.
Growth, but barely
The bigger story is the full-year picture. The consensus calls for 1,654,808 deliveries in all of 2026, with a median of 1,667,842.
Tesla delivered roughly 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, which itself was a second consecutive annual decline. That means analysts are modeling barely 1% growth for the full year — essentially flat.
It’s also a downgrade from where expectations sat just three months ago. When Tesla published its Q1 2026 consensus in March, the full-year 2026 figure was 1,689,691. The number has since been cut by about 35,000 vehicles.
The longer-dated estimates assume a reacceleration that has not yet shown up in the data. The consensus has deliveries climbing to 1,824,568 in 2027, 2,065,389 in 2028, 2,365,715 in 2029, and 2,649,054 in 2030.
The catch is the uncertainty. The standard deviation on the 2030 estimate is a staggering 760,060 vehicles — meaning analysts can’t agree within nearly a million units on where Tesla will be in four years. That’s a sign nobody actually knows whether the affordable model and other catalysts will materialize.
Energy storage is the brighter spot
Tesla’s energy business continues to be the part of the consensus pointing up and to the right. Analysts expect 13.8 GWh of energy storage deployments in Q2 2026, up sharply from the 8.8 GWh Tesla deployed in Q1.
For the full year, the consensus sits at 57.9 GWh, climbing to 79.8 GWh in 2027 and 150.1 GWh by 2030. Energy storage remains Tesla’s fastest-growing segment even as vehicle volume stalls.
The competitive backdrop
The flat delivery outlook comes as Tesla narrowly reclaimed the global EV sales lead from BYD in Q1 2026 — but mostly because BYD’s domestic sales fell after China scrapped its EV purchase tax exemption, not because Tesla surged.
Tesla still leans heavily on China, where its Shanghai plant accounted for roughly 60% of global volume in Q1, and on the aging Model 3 and Model Y, which make up about 95% of deliveries.
Electrek’s Take
Tesla publishing its own consensus is a strategically convenient exercise. By aggregating sell-side estimates and putting them on its IR page, the company effectively sets the bar it will be measured against — and history shows that bar tends to drift conveniently low ahead of each quarter. Tesla still missed the Q1 2026 consensus anyway, delivering 358,023 against an expectation of 365,645 and building more than 50,000 vehicles it couldn’t sell.
The 406,024 Q2 number is achievable, and would mark year-over-year growth, but let’s be clear about what it represents: a company that peaked at 1.81 million deliveries in 2023 and is now being modeled for barely 1% growth in 2026. The “growth company” narrative that justifies Tesla’s valuation is not in these numbers. The out-year estimates that climb toward 2.65 million by 2030 are doing a lot of heavy lifting, and the enormous standard deviations attached to them show analysts are essentially guessing.
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