Sea Level Rise and Sunny-Day Flooding Can’t Stop a Building Boom on the Jersey Shore

ASBURY PARK, N.J.—Million-dollar condos are rising just off the legendary boardwalk here in what used to be a blue-collar shore town where Bruce Springsteen played as a young musician.

Half an hour south, excavation is making way for luxury homes in Seaside Park at the edge of Island Beach State Park, a mecca for fishers who come in droves to cast lines on the pristine beach. Farther south, in Somers Point, contractors are building townhouses near marshes that were engulfed during Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Warnings about sea level rise haven’t stopped the building boom at the Jersey Shore even as scientific studies predict increased flooding in the coming decades that will eventually affect not just the shoreline but inland communities as well.

New regulations that mandate more stringent construction standards and flood protections and factor in an ever-increasing rise in sea level by 2100 are facing strong resistance from business and political leaders up and down the coast. 

The battle is being fought in the courts and in the state legislature, where Senate President Nicholas Scutari, a Democrat, introduced a resolution that would essentially kill the new measures.

“It’s a really critical moment,” said Peter Kasabach, the executive director of New Jersey Future, a conservation advocacy group. 

Kasabach said the regulations are part of the framework for ameliorating the impact of what could be existential threats. “They really are the next step in how we manage both climate change and how we manage how and where we develop in the state,” he said.

Somers Point Mayor Dennis Tapp, a Republican who is opposed to the rules, said there is a lot of anticipation about whether the state’s new governor, Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat, might issue some kind of a reprieve. “Right now, everyone is waiting,” he said.

The rules were adopted in January but allow a window until mid-July for some projects to proceed under old, less-stringent standards.

At least four counties—Cape May, Monmouth, Cumberland and Ocean—are in court seeking to block the regulations, contending the state Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) exceeded its authority. The New Jersey Business & Industry Association (NJBIA) and the New Jersey Builders Association (NJBA) have appealed to the New Jersey Appellate Division, arguing the rules are too burdensome. Both cases are still pending.

The rules, called the Resilient Environments and Landscapes (REAL) regulations, are considered groundbreaking and a possible model for other states because they don’t just address the impact of past floods but seek to prepare for what the future may hold.

The most controversial provision requires new shore homes and substantial remodels of existing houses to be built four feet higher than current FEMA standards, which already have caused many houses to be raised since Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Opponents say that the new requirement will be expensive and make homes so high they will be difficult to enter, especially for handicapped and older people. 

The sweeping regulations integrate scientific calculations of sea-level rise projections into the updated land-use regulations and create “inundation risk zones” with revised maps that put more homes in flood zones. They mandate more stringent construction standards and analysis of projects planned in flood zones and also require better stormwater management and greater protections for wetlands.

But business and industry groups have been joined by mayors, county officials and state legislators in fighting the new rules. Opponents, who include Republicans and Democrats, contend the rules are too onerous, rely on worst-case scenarios that may be wrong, will hurt property values and increase development costs.

Mike Mangan, the Democratic mayor of Manasquan, a shore community, said he also thinks the rules should go further in addressing the need to raise existing roads, many of which will need to be higher so people and emergency responders can get around during flooding.

“That’s what we need,” said Mangan, one of dozens of mayors who are opposed to the new regulations. “Most of the houses are already elevated. The roads aren’t.”

Mangan said he has observed the sea level increase and knows that something must be done to ensure that the town will be viable when his children are grown. “If they’re going to live here in 30 or 40 years, we need to do this now,” said Mangan, who is about to implement a municipal plan to raise the roads in the eastern part of the town.

Tapp said Somers Point has taken steps on its own—with valves, pumping stations and bulkheads—to prepare. “Just like life, you roll the dice,” he said. “We have taken steps for that worst-case scenario. Is it going to be perfect? No.” 

Tapp said Somers Point is in the midst of a growth spurt, with some 360 townhouses and single homes on the books for construction, so they must be proactive. “We’re definitely not sticking our heads in the sand,” he said.

New Jersey is hardly alone in trying to plan for the future of its coastline, but scientists say the state is especially vulnerable because it is experiencing the double threat of sea level rise, due mostly to melting glaciers, and a sinking terrain, due mainly to groundwater pumping. Greenhouse gases, fossil fuels and pollution will exacerbate what nature does.

According to the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center, the sea level at the Jersey Shore has risen 18 inches since the early 1900s—more than twice the global mean rate of about eight inches. Scientists who have been tracking the data have laid out a series of estimates of what is likely to happen in the coming years.

The chart laying out those projections shows an ever-increasing rise of sea level, with a possible 4.4 foot increase by 2100. 

Tapp said he thinks the new sea-level projections focus too far into the future and are painting a far more ominous picture than necessary. “It’s always the worst-case scenario,” said Tapp, who figures that preparing for the next 20 years is more pragmatic than trying to anticipate what may happen in 75 years.

The long-term implications for the nation’s most densely populated state are significant and could impact everything from the ability to get on and off the barrier islands during flooding to property values, emergency services and tax revenue.

The rules—outlined in more than 1,000 pages—essentially lay out a new vision for shore life, with smarter planning to discourage building in flood zones, stronger protections for wetlands and tidal marshes and updated stormwater standards designed to reduce flooding and erosion.  

“We really need to be smart about where we are building,” said Danielle McCulloch, the executive director of the American Littoral Society, a conservation group.

McCulloch and other environmentalists said the state Department of Environmental Protection has been reasonable in its estimates of how much the ocean waters will rise. Last year, for example, the DEP cut the added height requirement from five feet down to the current four feet, based on revised data that suggested a slight reduction in expected sea level rise.

Looking ahead to the next century is appropriate, she said. “We really need to think about, when we build something new, what’s it going to look like in 60 years?” said McCulloch. 

For all the talk about sea-level rise among scientists, environmentalists and government officials, there has been no shortage of new homes up and down the coastline.

Kasabach said people just want to live near the ocean—and those who can afford the rising price of homes will take the risk of having to deal with flooding, even another superstorm.

“There’s just more development taking place. I can’t think of a single place that is slowing down,” he said. The only thing changing, he said, is the houses have gotten taller since Superstorm Sandy. 

Some shore communities are already experiencing rising waters as tidal flooding—also known as sunny-day flooding—which is becoming more common. It is a strange phenomenon to witness when water floods low-lying roadways, even in good weather. High tides, a new or full moon and off-shore low-pressure systems can cause this, but scientists say carbon emissions and pollution are exacerbating what Mother Nature alone would do.

In Somers Point, Walter Gregory, who has a home a short distance from the bay, said he doesn’t worry too much because his house is 15 feet above sea level and was undamaged during Sandy. Gregory said he believes the sea-level projections are exaggerated and that the shore will be able to handle an eventual rise. “I think it will come up slow and we’ll adjust.”

In Asbury Park, a town that has grown gradually from a down-on-its-heels beach community to a haven for artists and the LGBTQ community, old Victorians have been modernized, and construction now is happening just off the boardwalk and in the restaurant district.

Jen Hampton, an artist who has a gallery in town, said she wonders who is buying the million-dollar condos in an area of town that is likely to flood. “I just worry about that,” she said.

In Cape May County, PJ Hondros, a coastal risk analyst who runs a popular Facebook group, North Wildwood Coastal Processes, said that the often-vitriolic online debates show how sea level rise has become a “political flashpoint” with many dismissing the data.

“I hope people come around,” he said.

Already, he said, rising waters are having an impact, with sunny-day flooding impacting low-lying areas of Atlantic City, Ocean City and Long Beach Island—a harbinger of the future. 

But Hondros sees no decline in the popularity of having a place at the shore. 

“I don’t foresee the development dampening anytime soon,” he said.

McCulloch said new homeowners are often shocked when they see what flooding can do and how quickly the waters can rise. “These rules are really about protecting New Jersey and our communities and taxpayers and making sure we’re building things that are going to last,” she said. “We need all resources and hands on deck right now.”