NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
TUCSON, Ariz. — Blood spatter on Nancy Guthrie’s front porch shows she was still alive when coerced out of her home by a lone abductor in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, according to a retired FBI profiler — who also believes that the masked suspect made enough mistakes that he will be identified eventually.
“We also know at least that she was alive at that time,” said Jim Clemente, who spent 22 years in the bureau.
That’s based on his analysis of blood on her front porch. There was a concentration of round droplets near the front door, then a thinning trail toward her driveway.
An armed individual appears to tamper with the camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door the morning of her disappearance in Tucson, Ariz., on Feb. 1, 2026. (Courtesy of NBC, FBI)
“She must have aspirated and then coughed up blood with her face very close to the ground, and I don’t believe that would have happened had two people been carrying her at that point,” he told Fox News Digital.
Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been kidnapped from her home around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1. For days, there were few clues about who was responsible, until the FBI and Google recovered imagery from her Nest doorbell camera that showed a masked man wearing gloves and a holstered pistol arrive on her front steps the night she vanished.
Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)
He is described as above average height and build. He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack, long sleeves, gloves and a ski mask. And he remains unidentified nearly 100 days later.
Still, the video is full of clues, Clemente told Fox News Digital.
FOLLOW THE FOX TRUE CRIME TEAM ON X
Although the suspect is believed to have scouted the location in advance, he resorted to using foliage to block the Nest camera lens and had the potential to shed facial hair through his ski mask, Clemente said.
A $10 WALMART GUN HOLSTER COULD HELP IDENTIFY SUSPECT IN NANCY GUTHRIE CASE
“In the process of doing that, I believe he revealed what looked like a tattoo on his wrist, which would not have been revealed had he adequately prepared for that camera being there,” he said.
SIGN UP TO GET TRUE CRIME NEWSLETTER
Aerial drone shots show the home and grounds of Nancy Guthrie in Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026. Nancy Guthrie, mother of ‘Today’ show host Savannah Guthrie, is believed to have been abducted from inside on Feb. 1. (Fox Flight Team/Fox News)
“So it tells me that he is not a sophisticated offender. He was sort of bumbling his way through this, and he made other mistakes, and I believe those mistakes will directly lead to his capture.”
While investigators have kept details about the inside of the home close, some have leaked, and they paint a story, Clemente said.
“I believe that what it means is he threatened her with his gun when he was at her bedside,” he told Fox News Digital. “He got her to come down, and at the front door is where she realized he’s going to take me and this is very dangerous and I should fight. And she did.”
An armed individual appears to tamper with a Google Nest camera at Nancy Guthrie’s front door in Tucson, Arizona, on Feb. 1, 2026, the morning of her disappearance. (FBI)
The doorbell video does not show Guthrie being taken from her home, although there was blood clearly visible on her stone walkway. The camera itself was missing when deputies arrived the next morning. However, the fact that the FBI was able to recover video anyway likely shocked the kidnapper, Clemente said, and someone in his orbit should have been able to pick up the signs.
LISTEN TO THE NEW ‘CRIME & JUSTICE WITH DONNA ROTUNNO’ PODCAST
The FBI released two images recovered from Nancy Guthrie’s Nest doorbell camera showing a masked man wearing gloves on her porch. It is unclear if both images show the same person. (Courtesy of FBI)
“Because of all the mistakes this guy made, because of his ineptness and non-professional behavior in this, I believe that he exhibited a great degree of stress when the images were first released,” Clemente said. “Anybody around him should have noticed that change in behavior and potentially be able to identify him because of that.”
FBI HAS RECEIVED DNA DATA FROM NANCY GUTHRIE CASE: SOURCES
There was also an unidentified hair sample recovered from the home. The sheriff’s department initially sent it to a private lab in Florida. After 11 weeks, the lab there sent it to the FBI for more advanced analysis.
A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Department stands in front of the house of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, in Tucson, Ariz., on Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)
LIKE WHAT YOU’RE READING? FIND MORE ON THE TRUE CRIME HUB
“If it is a hair from the offender, then it will lead to his identification,” Clemente said. “They will have his name.”
There is a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information that cracks the case.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
To remain anonymous, contact Tucson’s 88-Crime tip line at (520) 882-7463.
The family is also urging anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.
