With this, the attention turned to crop yields, which have assumed greater importance.
In its latest report on monsoon and kharif sowing, Barclays said that “yields not acreage will be of focus here on”, adding that “2025 was a year of above normal rainfall and accelerated sowing, and hence presents as a high base for 2026”.
Crop yields now in focus as sowing recovers
However, the acreage under key kharif crops-paddy, moong, tur and maize-remained lower year-on-year, making rainfall during the crop-development stage important for final output.
Area under rice was 4.4% lower than a year ago, while sowing of pulses was down 1.8%. Coarse cereals were trailing last year’s acreage by 2.7%. Bajra, cotton and sugarcane were also down marginally.
Rainfall across the country was 12% below the long-period average (LPA) as of Monday, with the intensity of rainfall over central and parts of southern region decreasing last week, accompanied by exceptionally heavy rains and flood-like conditions in Himachal Pradesh, Kerala and the Northeast.
Rainfall in August so far is 9% below LPA, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, spatial distribution of rainfall is highly skewed, with about 45% of districts still in the deficient or large-deficient rainfall categories, keeping concerns over crop conditions alive even as the gap in overall acreage has narrowed sharply.
The IMD expects rainfall to be above normal during August 13-19, with heavy rainfall likely to continue over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and southern coastal areas including Kerala.
For the second half of the monsoon season, covering August and September, however, the IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the LPA.
This could be especially important for crops that require adequate rainfall after sowing, particularly during vegetative growth and grain formation.
Water availability in major reservoirs has also improved significantly following recent rains.
Overall reservoir storage increased to 53% of live capacity by August 6, up from 44% a week earlier. Storage is now only slightly below last year’s level and remains well above the corresponding period in 2023, an El Nino year.