Historically, a strong El Niño — associated with weak and erratic rainfall and above-normal temperatures — has crimped output of key kharif crops, particularly oilseeds and pulses. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall this monsoon season, estimated at 90% of the long period average (LPA), heightening fears about rainfall adequacy during the kharif season.
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Government officials however played down the impact of insufficient rains, citing improvement in irrigation infrastructure over the years.
An ET analysis of the last three strong El Niño periods of 1991-92, 1997-98, and 2015-16 showed a total decline of 1.3% on average in kharif crop output. “Based on historical analysis, each percentage point of monsoon shortfall below the Long Period Average is associated with approximately 0.4 percentage points of lower crop gross value added growth,” said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank.
Some crops are more affected than others based on the periods analysed. Average jowar production fell 28%, while tur output dropped 17.1%. Other key kharif crops also suffered losses. Bajra production declined 15.7%, nutri/coarse cereals 13.8%, and maize 5.4%. Oilseeds such as groundnut are also vulnerable, recording a fall of 5.8%. Among cash crops, cotton output slipped 13%, while sugarcane posted 0.8% growth.
WMO FORECAST
The World Meteorological Organization said there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing during the June-August period and a more than 90% chance that it will persist through November.
Typically, kharif sowing begins in June, coinciding with the arrival of the monsoon.
With India getting up to 80% of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon period through September, any deviation in rainfall during this period will have significant implications for agricultural production.
Among major crops, bajra, maize, tur, and groundnut are the most vulnerable to belownormal monsoon. In contrast, rice is less susceptible due to a comparatively higher irrigation coverage area of around 70%. India also has record rice and wheat holdings in its granaries.
“The impact of El Niño has been reducing over the years as irrigation facilities have improved drastically,” said a senior government official. “We have also been using climate resistant and short-duration varieties of seeds to counter rainfall deviations.”
The timing of El Niño’s impact is critical.
“If rainfall is weak during the beginning of the season, it impacts the sown area,” said Gupta. “However, if the impact of El Niño falls during the latter half of the season, the impact could be felt less on sowing and more on yields (and therefore production growth).”
Higher temperatures, combined with uneven rainfall during the season’s first half, are also expected to intensify pest and disease outbreaks across crops such as chilli, cotton, soyabean, pulses and vegetables, said rating agency Crisil in a report.
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INFLATION RISKS AND RURAL ECONOMY
Inflation also tends to be higher during El Niño years. For instance, average inflation stood at 4.9% in 2015-16, while pulses inflation surged to 31.7%.
Lower farm productivity has a direct bearing on inflation as vegetable, pulses, and edible oils account for around 9% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Gupta estimates inflation at 5.1% for FY27 but cautioned that the risks remain skewed to the upside due to the Iran war. Retail inflation inched up to 3.5% in April.
Beyond crops and prices, El Niño can have wider consequences for rural India. “El Niño can impact the rural economy by affecting production and livelihoods tied to agriculture,” said Gupta.