Jet Airways disappeared before making a partial comeback. Go First shut down. Air Deccan, Paramount Airways, Air Costa and several others either folded or faded away. Even carriers backed by experienced promoters and substantial capital struggled to survive.
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In a duopoly of IndiGo and the Tata Group which control more than 90% market share, the existing smaller airlines struggle to make a dent.
Now Adani could potentially enter the sector where the odds have historically been stacked against newcomers. ET has reported today that Adani Group has approached the government, seeking dilution of a clause that currently prevents operators of the country’s busiest airports of New Delhi and Mumbai from holding more than 10% stake in a scheduled airline.
While there is no official confirmation from either the government or Adani, recent reports indicate that discussions are underway on relaxing the rules.
Adani does have the capacity to start an airline but the real question is whether the group can succeed in an industry that has defeated so many ambitious entrants and whether it can genuinely challenge the IndiGo-Air India duopoly that now dominates Indian skies.Also Read: India weighs letting airport owners Adani, GMR run own airlines to curb duopoly
Indian aviation market is desperate for competition
India’s airline industry has become more concentrated than at any point in recent memory. IndiGo controls more than 60% of the domestic market while Air India Group has emerged as the clear number two after absorbing Vistara and AirAsia India. The two account for nearly 90% of domestic capacity. The concentration is not merely a competition issue. It has also become a strategic concern for policymakers. The disruption caused by IndiGo’s operational problems last year highlighted how dependent the market has become on a handful of carriers. When one large airline faces difficulties, the entire aviation ecosystem feels the impact.
India’s long-term growth projections make the situation even more significant. The country plans to expand its airport network dramatically over the coming decades and aviation bodies expect hundreds of millions of additional passengers to enter the market. Sustaining that growth with only two dominant airlines may not be ideal from either a consumer or policy perspective.
Against that backdrop, the idea of a well-funded new entrant will appear to be just what the sector needs to work efficiently.
Also Read: A look at billionaire Adani’s businesses as he weighs starting an airline
Why Adani is different from previous aviation entrants
Most failed Indian airlines suffered from one of these three problems — they lacked capital, lacked operational scale or entered the market without a broader ecosystem around them. Adani potentially arrives with all three advantages.
Over the past few years, the group has built one of the largest aviation infrastructure portfolios in the country. It operates eight airports including Mumbai, one of India’s most important gateways. It has expanded into ground handling services, pilot training and aircraft maintenance and repair. It is also pursuing plans to manufacture aircraft in partnership with Brazilian aerospace company Embraer. This creates a degree of vertical integration rarely seen in Indian aviation.
Unlike traditional airline promoters who began with only aircraft and route networks, Adani already controls large portions of the surrounding ecosystem. An airline would not be a standalone venture but operate alongside airports, maintenance facilities, training academies and potentially aircraft manufacturing operations. That adjacency-driven expansion model has been a defining characteristic of the group’s growth strategy across sectors ranging from ports and logistics to energy and data centres. Aviation may simply be the next logical extension of that playbook.
Why the economics could work better than before
One reason airlines struggle is that they operate in a notoriously unforgiving business. Fuel costs are very volatile, aircraft are expensive and can take a lot of time to get delivered, margins are thin and policy risk always looms large. A minor operational disruption can wipe out profitability. Yet airline economics becomes somewhat more attractive when viewed as part of a larger ecosystem.
An airline can generate traffic for airports. Airports can create commercial revenues through retail, parking and passenger services. Maintenance facilities gain business from fleet growth. Pilot training schools benefit from rising recruitment requirements. Aircraft manufacturing projects receive a potential launch customer. In that sense, an airline may not need to justify itself purely on standalone profitability. It can strengthen the economics of adjacent businesses. This is likely one of the strongest strategic arguments supporting a possible Adani entry.
Adani’s deep pockets will matter in aviation
Indian aviation has entered a new phase where scale has become essential. IndiGo has hundreds of aircraft on order. Air India has launched one of the largest fleet expansion programmes in aviation history. Both possess enormous purchasing power when negotiating aircraft deals, maintenance contracts and supplier agreements. A new airline attempting to challenge them would require years of investment before achieving meaningful market share.
Few Indian business groups possess the financial capacity to sustain that kind of long-term battle. Adani is among the handful that do. The group’s ability to absorb initial losses and continue investing could help it avoid the fate of several previous entrants that ran out of money before reaching scale. That advantage should not be underestimated. Aviation rewards patience and punishes undercapitalisation.
Adani’s biggest aviation challenge won’t be money
Even with substantial financial resources, Adani would be entering at perhaps the most difficult moment for a new airline launch. The global aircraft shortage remains severe. Airbus and Boeing continue to face delivery delays caused by supply chain disruptions and manufacturing bottlenecks. Airlines worldwide are waiting longer for new aircraft. For a new carrier, obtaining aircraft quickly may prove far more difficult than raising capital.
Without sufficient aircraft, building a meaningful network becomes challenging which in turn makes attracting corporate travellers difficult. And without premium passengers, profitability remains elusive. This bottleneck could slow any expansion plans regardless of how ambitious they may be. Adani’s own venture with Embraer may take time to mature enough to start steady deliveries.
Breaking the airline duopoly is easier said than done
The biggest misconception in Indian aviation is that a new airline automatically creates competition. Many airlines have entered the market but very few have managed to alter the industry’s structure. The challenge is that IndiGo and Air India now occupy vastly different positions from previous incumbents. They possess extensive fleets, strong distribution networks, loyalty programmes, airport access and established customer bases. IndiGo in particular enjoys a scale advantage that few global airlines can match within their domestic markets.
For Adani, success may initially mean becoming a credible third force rather than directly threatening either incumbent. Capturing even 10-15% market share in a concentrated industry in initial years would be a significant achievement. The real contest would likely unfold over a decade rather than a few years.
The conflict-of-interest question
If there is one issue that could complicate Adani’s ambitions, it is regulation. Competing airlines have already raised concerns about an airport operator owning an airline. Their primary worry relates to airport slots, especially at congested hubs such as Mumbai. Even if no preferential treatment occurs, competitors are likely to argue that the perception of unequal treatment could undermine confidence in the system.
Government officials, as ET has reported, believe safeguards can address these concerns through arm’s-length structures, restrictions on information sharing and stronger oversight mechanisms. Existing slot allocation rules also provide protection to incumbent airlines. Yet the regulatory debate is unlikely to disappear. Any move allowing airport operators to own airlines will face intense scrutiny from competitors, regulators and policy experts.
The Embraer factor
One intriguing element behind the buzz is Adani’s proposed aircraft manufacturing partnership with Embraer. Industry executives cited in recent reports suggest that attracting customers for locally manufactured aircraft could be easier if the group itself operated an airline capable of placing sizeable orders. If true, that introduces another strategic layer to the story.
An airline would not merely be a transport business. It could become a catalyst for a broader aerospace manufacturing ecosystem. Such a model would resemble approaches seen in some international markets where airlines, maintenance operations and manufacturing capabilities reinforce one another. That possibility makes the aviation story larger than a simple airline launch.
Adani can’t disrupt IndiGo-Air India duopoly overnight
If Adani eventually enters aviation, it will start with advantages that few previous airline promoters possessed. It has capital, infrastructure, operational experience and a network of adjacent businesses that can create meaningful synergies. These strengths make it a more credible challenger than many carriers that have entered the market over the past two decades.
But none of those advantages eliminate the fundamental realities of the airline business. Aircraft shortages, high operating costs, entrenched incumbents and regulatory scrutiny remain formidable obstacles. The history of Indian aviation is littered with companies that appeared well-positioned before discovering how difficult the industry can be.
The most realistic scenario is not an overnight disruption of the IndiGo-Air India duopoly. It is a long and expensive campaign to build a sustainable third airline group. Whether Adani ultimately succeeds will depend less on its ability to launch an airline and more on its willingness to endure years of investment before the rewards become visible.