The sector is now expected to reach $80 billion to $90 billion by 2030, well below an industry target of $130 billion set in April last year, Namit Joshi, chairman of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, said.
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He said the market was worth about $60 billion in the year ended March 2026, comprising roughly $31 billion of exports and $29 billion of domestic sales.
“April last year, we aspired to double the market size. Given the geopolitical changes, the Middle East crisis and everything, I don’t foresee us achieving that growth target,” Joshi said in an interview last week.
The industry has come under pressure as Indian drug exports face uncertainty over possible U.S. tariffs and longer shipping routes after the conflict in the Middle East forced cargoes to avoid the Red Sea, raising freight costs and transit times.
Often called the “pharmacy of the world“, India is a major supplier of generic medicines to the United States, accounting for nearly half of all generic prescriptions filled in the U.S. in 2022.U.S. President Donald Trump said last month all imported generic drugs would continue to face a 0% tariff for two years from August 1, after which the rate would rise to 100% for one year and 200% thereafter.
India’s pharmaceutical shipments to the United States fell to about $9.7 billion in the financial year ended March 2026 from roughly $10.5 billion a year earlier, Joshi said, even as overall pharma exports rose 2.13%, helped by demand from Brazil and Europe.
Joshi said annual industry growth could stay at 6% to 10% over the next three years before moving into double digits as higher-value products such as biosimilars and peptides gain ground.
Rebuilding a manufacturing base in the United States would take at least five years to establish a complete supply chain, Joshi said, adding that Indian drugmakers would be unable to absorb steep tariffs.