It also noted that these factors combined would keep the brokerage maintain its bearish stance on the commodity over the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said Middle East supply losses will persist longer than initially assumed. “Since our last update, industry feedback and company announcements point to a slower recovery in Middle East production than we had initially assumed,” the report said. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the announced interim deal, smelters cannot immediately return to full capacity as damaged potlines need repairs and curtailed capacity must be restarted gradually. The bank downgraded Middle East output by 660kt in 2026 and 1Mt in 2027, assuming damaged capacity restarts in early 2027 rather than H2 2026. It now expects Bahrain output to return to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027 and the UAE by end-2027.
This near-term shock tightens the market balance. Goldman Sachs now expects the global aluminium market to post a 720kt deficit in 2026 and a 590kt surplus in 2027 versus a 570kt deficit/1. 3Mt surplus prior. “This is the tale of two supply shocks: a near-term Middle East shock that tightens the 2026/2027 balance and supports near-term prices, set against a structural China-backed supply wave, led by Indonesia, that increasingly offsets the disruption over time and keeps us bearish further out,” the bank said.
The global brokerage firm said Indonesia and China will drive the supply offset. Goldman Sachs raised its Indonesian primary aluminium production forecast to 1. 7Mt in 2026 and 2. 9Mt in 2027 from 1. 6Mt and 2. 5Mt previously, citing faster ramps at Adaro, Taijing Morowali and Juwan Weda Bay. Indonesian output is already up around 89% YoY YTD. For China, the bank raised its 2026/2027 production forecasts to 45. 6Mt/46. 3Mt as strong margins support restarts and overproduction above the 45Mt capacity cap.
On prices, Goldman Sachs nudged its Q3 2026/average 2027 higher LME aluminium forecasts to $3,300/$2,950/t from $3,200/$2,750/t, but remains below forwards at $3,400/$3,250/t. The bank closed its short Dec-26 LME aluminium trade and rolled to a short Dec-27, “where our forecast sits furthest below the forward and best expresses our structural surplus view.” Risks remain two-sided: a slower Middle East restart would keep 2027 fairly balanced around $3,250/t, while a faster restart could lift the surplus toward 1. 2Mt and push prices closer to $2,750/t.