Nuvama Institutional Equities says the monsoon has set in over Kerala with initial progress broadly on track, but rainfall deficits and El Nino risks raise the stakes for kharif crops and reservoir levels through September.
“FY27 is shaping up as an inflation-led rural slowdown rather than a broad-based economic downturn,” Nuvama noted. The report projects headline CPI inflation at around 5.7%, materially above the RBI’s 4.6% forecast, driven by weather-related supply disruptions, high crude oil prices, fuel pass-through and higher fertilizer costs.
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“The ongoing West Asia conflict adds an important second inflationary channel through higher energy prices, increasing the risks to transportation, logistics and agricultural input costs,” it said.
Inflation pressure is expected to be concentrated in pulses, oilseeds, vegetables and spices, where irrigation coverage is low and buffer stocks are limited. Rice and wheat remain relatively insulated due to irrigation and government procurement.
The monsoon arrived about three days later than the normal June 1 onset, but IMD forecasts heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala this week and advances into Telangana within a week. Withdrawal of heatwave alerts in Telangana and moderating temperatures are positive for kharif sowing. Still, IMD forecasts rainfall at 90% of the long-period average with a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, and global agencies see a high chance of El Nino during the core monsoon.”If El Nino intensifies during the second half of the monsoon season, the impact could extend beyond kharif crops through lower reservoir replenishment and weaker soil moisture conditions, increasing the risks to the FY27 rabi crops,” Nuvama warned. September-end reservoir levels will be a key indicator for the agricultural and inflation outlook.
The inflation shock is likely to hit rural India harder. “Food accounts for approximately 42% of the rural CPI basket compared with around 30.3% in urban India, causing rural inflation to typically exceed urban inflation during food-price shocks,” the report said. Higher food prices are expected to erode rural purchasing power and compress real wage growth.
As a result, sectors such as tractors, entry-level two-wheelers, rural-focused FMCG, value retail and consumer durables are likely to grow at a lower pace, while urban-oriented sectors, including private banks, premium consumption and wealth management, should remain relatively resilient.
On policy, Nuvama expects the RBI to prioritize hawkish communication, foreign exchange intervention and liquidity management over an immediate rate hike in June. The brokerage continues to expect a cumulative 50 basis points rate increase over FY27, most likely beginning in the third quarter, if inflation stays elevated and the rupee remains under pressure.