Exports declined to around 930,000 bpd, down to levels last seen when shipments averaged 926,000 bpd in October 2022, reflecting a combination of lower refinery throughput and a growing focus on supplying the domestic market, according to data analytics firm Kpler.
“This sharp cutback was driven by a combination of lower refinery throughput, maintenance activity, and a structural pivot toward the domestic market,” said Sumit Ritolia, model and refining manager at Kpler.
A key factor behind the decline was planned maintenance at Reliance Industries‘ Jamnagar refining complex, India’s largest refinery and a major exporter of refined fuels. The maintenance programme reduced crude processing rates and limited the availability of export volumes during the month.
Refiners also adjusted product yields to increase production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for the domestic market, reducing output of petrol and diesel by an estimated 80,000 bpd.
The shift reflected efforts to address local LPG supply requirements and came at the expense of export-oriented products, particularly gasoline and diesel.
State-owned refiners further contributed to the decline by directing a larger share of output to the domestic market amid concerns over energy security and the need to maintain adequate local fuel supplies. The move reflects a broader trend of prioritising domestic demand over export markets. According to Ritolia, export economics have also become less favourable, with taxes on refined product exports reducing the attractiveness of overseas sales relative to domestic supply, limiting incentives for refiners to increase shipments abroad.
The sharp fall in exports underscores how refinery maintenance, evolving fuel demand patterns and policy considerations are reshaping India’s refined product trade flows, even as the country remains one of Asia’s largest fuel exporters, he said.