NEW DELHI: Asaduddin Owaisi, the president of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), is all set to do a Bihar in Uttar Pradesh.Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are nearly 8-9 months away and all key stakeholders are busy firming up their strategies for the high-stakes contest. But the AIMIM president is already in action mode with a tried and tested strategy that can put some opposition parties in a Catch-22 situation.Owaisi on Sunday held a rally in UP’s Bahraich, a strategically chosen district, to not just launch his party’s UP campaign but also to throw a now-familiar challenge to the opposition parties: “We are ready to join hands with you to prevent the BJP from returning to power provided we are treated with respect and accorded equal status within that alliance.”While on the one hand Owaisi reached out to the opposition parties, on the other he threw an open challenge to the Samajwadi Party by announcing Shaukat Ali as the AIMIM candidate from the Matera assembly constituency in Bahraich. The seat at present is with the SP which is the main opposition player in the state.Now, those who have followed the politics of the AIMIM chief would have a sense of deja vu. He has followed the same template in Bihar and Maharashtra.
Let’s rewind and go back to the 2025 Bihar assembly elections.
AIMIM’s Bihar Playbook
The AIMIM added a new and interesting dimension to politics in the run up to the 2025 assembly elections in Bihar. In a first of its kind, they held a protest demanding their party’s inclusion in the opposition’s Mahagathbandhan alliance.
The AIMIM workers held a demonstration with drums outside the residence of former CM Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad demanding space in the opposition INDIA bloc to “prevent a split of secular votes”.The unique protest not just made for good optics but also put immense pressure on the INDIA bloc parties – the RJD and the Congress- who eventually did not agree to the AIMIM alliance.The AIMIM contested on 28 seats and won 5 with a vote share of 1.89%, while the INDIA bloc allies were decimated by the NDA.
Failed Maharashtra outreach
Earlier in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections also, the AIMIM reached out to the opposition Maha Vikas Agadhi for an alliance. The AIMIM state president wrote a letter to MVA members stating they were open to alliance talks. However, the Congress, Shiv Sena and the NCP rejected AIMIM’s outreach.The party eventually contested 16 assembly seats alone but was successful in retaining only one of the two assembly seats it had won in the 2019 polls.
UP strategy
Now, let’s shift our focus back to Uttar Pradesh.First, let’s discuss Owaisi’s choice of Bahraich for his launch rally. The Matera assembly constituency in Bahraich is a stronghold of the Samajwadi Party and not the BJP, which is the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh. If Owaisi wants to defeat the BJP, shouldn’t he be logically targeting the BJP first? But Owaisi chose SP stronghold to launch his campaign because his primary objective is to woo the Muslim voters of the state who have for long backed Akhilesh Yadav’s party.Owaisi’s speech in Matera targeted BJP’s Yogi Adityanath government and Akhilesh Yadav in equal measure.“I am appealing to the people of Uttar Pradesh. Support AIMIM; we would rather die than trade away our honour and your affection,” Owaisi said at the rally.Questioning the development work carried out by elected representatives in the area, Owaisi said, “What have the Samajwadi Party leaders whom you voted for done for the development of the area? They did nothing.”Continuing with his attack on Samajwadi Party, he alleged that despite receiving votes from the public, local representatives had failed to ensure basic facilities and claimed that even a hospital had not been constructed in the area. Owaisi said the youth had become politically aware and urged people to support AIMIM.The second reason why the choice of Bahraich is a strategic decision is because it is a communally sensitive district and has a long-running political and historical contest over the legacy of Maharaja Suheldev and warrior-saint Syed Salar Masood Ghazi.During a recent visit to Bahraich, Uttar Pradesh minister Anil Rajbhar claimed that the dargah of Ghazi was originally a Surya Kund and said he would write to chief minister Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking an Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) survey.Anil Rajbhar also accused previous governments of glorifying “invaders” such as Ghazi while neglecting Maharaja Suheldev, who is celebrated among Rajbhars and several other OBC communities as the ruler who defeated Ghazi.Clearly, the issue has a great potential for polarisation and suits the hardline politics of Owaisi.
Owaisi’s opposition outreach: A well crafted strategy
Now, let’s come to the second part of Owaisi’s tried and tested strategy – a loud and open offer of alliance to the opposition parties.This now seems to have become a part of his election playbook. It is Owaisi’s way of countering the opposition parties who have over the years labelled AIMIM as the B-team of the BJP. The AIMIM outreach not just takes the sting out of the “B-team attack” but also puts the opposition in a Catch 22 situation. The AIMIM chief knows that there will be few takers in the opposition camp for his alliance offer.
Why opposition parties spurn Owaisi’s offer
So, why do the opposition parties not accept Owaisi’s offer and ensure that non-BJP votes, especially of the Muslims does not split? Well, this is because the opposition parties know that Owaisi’s offer is like a double-edged sword.First, most of these opposition parties like the RJD in Bihar, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh have banked heavily on the support of Muslims for their politics. If they accept AIMIM as an ally, they fear that Muslims will back Owaisi and gradually this will weaken their own minorities’ politics.Second, any opposition alliance with AIMIM will give the BJP a very strong weapon to engineer reverse polarisation. Since Owaisi is known for a very aggressive hardline brand of politics on issues concerning the minorities, the opposition will find it difficult to dissociate itself from the AIMIM. And this will give the BJP an opportunity to mobilise the Hindus against the opposition parties and eventually corner them.Clearly, that leaves the opposition parties in a Catch 22 situation. While any AIMIM alliance may help prevent division of minority votes, it may, at the same time, push the majority votes towards the BJP. Owaisi knows this predicament of the opposition parties and hence makes it a point to offer an alliance to them ahead of every election where his presence matters.And when the opposition parties reject his alliance, Owaisi leaves no stone unturned to put them on the mat by accusing them of using Muslims as a vote bank in elections but refusing to share power with them.What should worry the opposition parties, especially the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, is that Uttar Pradesh is unlike Maharashtra and Bihar. There is a fairly strong and independent pole of politics in the state in the form of BSP chief Mayawati. If she decides to align with Owaisi, their alliance could pose a formidable challenge to the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh.