Multiple reports suggest that Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra are witnessing an increase in respiratory infections, including Covid-19, H1N1 (swine flu), other influenza A viruses, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). According to a June 20 report by The Times of India, laboratories at major facilities such as Breach Candy Hospital have reportedly been detecting more than seven positive cases of Covid-19 or H1N1 every day, prompting discussions about whether seasonal and weather-related factors may be contributing to the rise.
Doctors cited in the report have observed a simultaneous increase in several respiratory viruses circulating in the community. BMC executive health officer Dr Daksha Shah told TOI that a couple of Covid cases had been reported, but added that “we believe these cases are mainly due to the ongoing weather change”. Some clinicians have also linked the trend to the delayed arrival of the monsoon.
DISCLAIMER: This article is based on information from the public domain and/or the experts we spoke to. Always consult your health practitioner before starting any routine.
The reports emerged just before rains lashed parts of Mumbai, with the India Meteorological Department issuing yellow and orange alerts for rainfall and warning of hot and humid weather conditions in parts of Maharashtra on June 21. While seasonal patterns have long been associated with respiratory infections, the relationship is often complex.
The reported increase in cases raises important questions about the role of changing weather conditions, the circulation of multiple respiratory viruses at the same time, and the precautions people should take as seasonal patterns continue to shift. To understand more, we spoke with experts.
What doctors are seeing on the ground
Dr Harish Chafle, Senior Consultant Chest Physician, Bronchoscopist, Intensivist and Sleep Disorders Specialist at Gleneagles Hospitals, Parel, Mumbai, says the increase is real, but pinning it down to a specific virus is harder than it sounds.
He tells indianexpress.com, “There is a noticeable increase in viral infection-related respiratory tract symptoms, but due to non-testing, we don’t know which virus and which strain of the same is causing it. Most patients present with cough, fever, sore throat, and breathlessness, while those with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or weakened immunity are more likely to develop moderate to severe respiratory symptoms requiring closer monitoring and care.”
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Dr Chafle’s observation highlights a critical gap: without widespread testing, the city is navigating a respiratory surge somewhat in the dark.
Dr Shahid Patel, Consultant Pulmonologist at Medicover Hospitals, Kharghar, Navi Mumbai, notes that no single age group is being spared. He reveals, “Currently, there is a trend of a mix of respiratory viral infections across different age groups, including working adults, school-going children, and senior citizens. Many patients complain of lingering cough and chest discomfort even after the fever subsides, indicating a slower recovery of the airways.”
That persistence of symptoms — even after the fever breaks — is a pattern worth paying attention to, suggesting the infections are leaving a longer imprint on the respiratory system than typical seasonal bugs.
Dr Vrushabh Thorat, Founder at Thorat’s Clinic, offers a measured but clear-eyed view. While he stops short of calling it a “surge,” the uptick is undeniable: “While we have not observed a significant surge, there has been a noticeable increase in patients presenting with acute respiratory tract infections, including viral influenza-like illnesses (ILI). Predominant symptoms include pyrexia, cough, pharyngitis, rhinorrhoea, and malaise. Most cases remain self-limiting, though geriatric, paediatric, and immunocompromised patients are at higher risk of severe manifestations.”
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Does the delayed monsoon have a role to play?
The link between Mumbai’s delayed monsoon and the spike in respiratory infections has been widely discussed. Prolonged hot, humid weather is believed to allow viruses to survive and spread longer. But doctors caution against oversimplifying the connection.
Dr Chafle explains that weather is one piece of a larger puzzle: “Weather can influence the spread of respiratory viruses. Delayed monsoons and prolonged hot, humid conditions may alter how viruses survive and how people interact indoors, which can contribute to extended circulation of infections. Other important factors include compromised immunity from previous infections, increased travel and social gatherings, crowded indoor environments, air pollution, and the simultaneous circulation of multiple viruses such as COVID-19, influenza, RSV, and H1N1. The current trend is likely due to a combination of environmental and population-related factors rather than weather alone.”
Dr Patel echoes this multi-causal view, urging against blaming the monsoon alone. “Rather than attributing the rise solely to delayed monsoon patterns, it is important to consider factors such as poor air quality, population movement, and waning immunity. These elements together can create conditions that favour the transmission of respiratory infections,” he shares.
Dr Thorat adds a clinical framing to the mix, pointing to social behaviour and biological vulnerability as key drivers, stating that the current uptick “is likely multifactorial, driven by seasonal epidemiology, increased interpersonal contact, indoor congregation, and waning population immunity against circulating respiratory pathogens.”
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Warning signs, risk groups and what to do
With several viruses circulating simultaneously, knowing when to seek medical help is critical.
Dr Chafle urges Mumbaikars not to ignore certain red flags and is particularly concerned about vulnerable populations. He mentions that respiratory viruses can sometimes “trigger serious lung inflammation, particularly in older adults, young children, pregnant women, and individuals with asthma, COPD, or weakened immunity.”
He adds that warning signs such as persistent fever, chest congestion, difficulty breathing, wheezing, or worsening asthma symptoms should not be ignored, and preventive measures like hand hygiene, good ventilation, wearing a mask, not being around sick people, and avoiding crowded indoor spaces remain important.”
Dr Thorat rounds out the picture with a comprehensive list of risk groups and practical guidance:”Individuals should seek medical attention for persistent fever, breathlessness, wheezing, chest discomfort, or worsening respiratory symptoms. High-risk groups include senior citizens, young children, pregnant women, and those with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases. Preventive measures include hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, adequate ventilation, vaccination where indicated, and avoiding crowded indoor environments.”
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The consensus among all three specialists is clear: Mumbai’s respiratory health situation demands attention, but the causes are layered, with weather, immunity gaps, indoor crowding, and air quality all playing a role. And while most infections remain manageable, the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with pre-existing lung conditions need to be especially vigilant.
If you have been brushing off that lingering cough or putting off a visit to the doctor, these experts say: don’t wait.
DISCLAIMER: This article is based on information from the public domain and/or the experts we spoke to. Always consult your health practitioner before starting any routine.