European confidence in an American “security guarantee” has hit a historic low, a survey suggests, with only one in 10 people across 15 countries seeing the US as an ally and majorities in all doubting it would come to their aid if they were attacked.
The survey, published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank before critical G7 and Nato summits in France and Turkey over the coming weeks, revealed “deep European distrust in the US”, the authors said.
It also showed that, while many Europeans felt relations with Washington would improve once Donald Trump leaves office, they were increasingly ready in the meantime to protect themselves against US unreliability by bolstering Europe’s defence.
The US president’s Middle East aggression, threats against Greenland, vows to withdraw troops from European bases and scepticism on the future of Nato had also prompted a growing European pragmatism, the report said.
“Across the continent, there’s clear support for reducing dependence on Washington,” said Jana Kobzová, a co-author and ECFR senior policy fellow. “Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending and, crucially, show a striking degree of confidence that neighbouring countries would come to their aid in a crisis.”
Paweł Zerka, Kobzová’s co-author and also an ECFR senior policy fellow, said clear public demand for greater self-reliance and the need to hedge against US defence guarantees had “created a window for Europe’s leaders to go further and faster” on security.
The survey, based on polling carried out in May in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK, showed an average of just 11% of respondents across all countries now viewed the US as an ally.
That compared with 16% six months ago, and 22% in November 2024. The prevailing view was that the US was now a “necessary partner”, although 13% of the European public said they considered the US a rival and 12% a direct adversary.
Majorities in every country were no longer confident the US would come to their aid in an attack. Except in Bulgaria, most people – including in countries with large far-right parties such as France, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden – believed “at least some European countries” would help them in a similar scenario.
Europeans were now on average 4% more likely to support higher national defence spending than last year, the survey found, with Italy the only country where a clear majority remained opposed.
On average, 47% of respondents backed the ideal of collective EU borrowing for finance greater defence spending, with 35% opposed to it. Support was strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%) and Spain.
In almost every country polled, most respondents said their country should reduce its strategic dependence on US military hardware, with “buy European” backers most numerous in Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), the UK and Spain (both 62%).
There was, however, markedly less support for the idea of cutting domestic public spending to pay for higher national defence budgets, with opposition strongest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%) and Denmark (52%).
There was also little backing (29%) for replacing Nato with a new EU-only defence body, with the dominant view in almost every country except Bulgaria that US-European relations would “probably get better” once Trump leaves – a view held by 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden.
Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans said it would be a “rather bad” or “very bad” idea to resume importing oil and gas from Russia.
Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU, however, continues to divide European opinion, with respondents in countries including Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany and even Estonia, one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters, more likely to oppose admitting Ukraine “in the current context” than favour it.