In its report titled “RBI’s Capital Inflow Push: Will It Resolve India’s Macro Dilemma?”, the brokerage said the central bank’s latest policy package is aimed at addressing emerging Balance of Payments (BoP) challenges arising from higher crude oil prices and weak capital inflows.
“The major thrust of the RBI’s policy announcement today is that the central bank is leaning significantly towards policy interventions aimed at attracting foreign capital in multiple forms,” the report said.
According to the report, the measures are intended “to address the emerging Balance of Payments (BoP) challenges stemming from a widening trade deficit, driven by higher crude oil prices, and lackluster capital flows, particularly in FDI and FPI.”
The report noted that pressure on the rupee has increased amid weaker foreign inflows and a rising import bill.
To ease these pressures, the RBI announced a series of measures, including greater access for foreign investors to government securities, higher investment limits for Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs), concessional external commercial borrowing facilities for public sector undertakings, support for FCNR(B) deposits, faster export proceeds realisation and tax incentives for certain foreign investments.Systematix said the package is designed to boost short- and medium-term foreign capital inflows and support domestic liquidity.
“Collectively, these measures (many time-bound until September 2026) aim to boost short- to medium-term foreign capital inflows, particularly on the capital account, to reduce pressure on the rupee and domestic liquidity,” the report said.
The report also highlighted a shift in the RBI’s macroeconomic outlook, pointing to lower growth projections and higher inflation expectations.
It noted that the central bank has reduced its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent earlier, while inflation projections have been revised upward.
“Growth: Scaled down by ~30 basis points to 6.6% for FY27 (from 6.9%),” the report said.
On inflation, it added that “upside risks” have increased, with inflation projected to average 5.7 per cent in the second half of FY27 and potentially reach 5.9 per cent in the third quarter.
Systematix argued that the latest projections point to growing stagflationary risks for the economy.
“The RBI appears to be capitulating to stagflationary risks — higher inflation (potentially approaching or exceeding the upper tolerance band) alongside moderating growth,” the report said.
The brokerage further noted that India’s foreign currency assets have declined amid interventions to support the rupee, adding that the currency had approached “critical levels near 100/USD.”
While acknowledging that the RBI’s measures could provide near-term relief, the report cautioned that they do not address deeper structural issues facing the economy.
“This package represents a short-term intervention to manage currency, liquidity, inflation, and growth amid global disturbances,” it said.
The report added that attracting foreign capital alone would not be enough to sustain long-term growth without stronger economic reforms.
“Without sustainable earnings growth and deeper structural reforms, these steps alone may not deliver lasting impact,” the report said, adding that durable growth would depend on “underlying economic fundamentals and sustained investor confidence.”