Eve Irvine is pleased to welcome General Michel Yakovleff, Professor at Sciences-Po and Former Vice-Chief of Staff at NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (Shape).. He presents a strategic rather than tactical reading of the current lull in the US-Iran conflict. He argues that the apparent de-escalation is not evidence of diplomatic progress but of mounting structural constraints. Rather than viewing pauses in hostilities as signs of imminent peace, he frames them as consequences of political pressure, military logistics and industrial limitations.
At the centre of his argument is the proposition that modern warfare is ultimately governed by sustainability. Missile stockpiles, industrial production capacity, domestic political legitimacy and alliance commitments become as decisive as battlefield success. General Yakovleff contends that the United States retains ample military capability to continue operations against Iran in isolation, yet doing so progressively erodes its ability to deter other adversaries, reassure allies and sustain global commitments.
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