The costs of space launch have fallen 96% in the past six decades and have the potential to plummet by nearly as much by 2040, a new study finds.
However, such an improvement might get hampered by a number of challenges, such as the rise of space debris in orbit or a single company monopolizing commercial space launch, researchers added.
Although previous analyses of space launch suggested that costs had dropped over time, one major problem with these prior studies was that they “considered the cost of the rockets, but not how much they launched during their lifetimes,” study co-author Francesco Nicoli, an associate professor of political economy at the Politecnico University of Turin in Italy, told Space.com. This meant this earlier work failed to accurately track the average costs of reaching space.
In the new study, the researchers developed the largest dataset of rocket launches to date, covering 4,405 launches from 1960 to 2025. This included more than 330 different rocket configurations devised by developers in the United States, Russia, China, India, Europe, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Israel, Iran, South Korea and Ukraine.
The investigators found that, in 2024 U.S. dollars, the average cost of sending 2.2 pounds (1 kilogram) to orbit dropped from $87,023 in 1960 to $3,868 in 2025 — a decrease of 96%.
All in all, the rate at which the space-launch industry learned to reduce costs was among the fastest recorded in any industry to date, the investigators noted. They calculated that each time the cumulative payload of the entire space-launch industry doubled, the average cost of sending 2.2 pounds (1 kg) to orbit decreased by 21.2%.
This learning rate exceeds that seen with solar panels, “a technology that is now frequently taken as the benchmark for cost reduction,” study co-author Alessio Terzi, an assistant professor of public policy at the University of Cambridge in England, told Space.com.
The researchers suggested two major causes behind this drop in costs. “First, the end of the Cold War and the shift to so-called ‘New Space,’ meaning the use of space for commercial purpose, seems to have accelerated the rate of learning — in the Cold War era, countries launched with their national launchers no matter the cost,” Terzi said. “Second, our data shows an acceleration in the learning rate of space since the launch of the Falcon 9 of SpaceX, and the advent of reusability at scale.”
Assuming this trend holds, the investigators estimated the average cost of space launch would fall to $1,600 per 2.2 pounds (1 kg) by 2030 and $300 by 2040. “There is still significant scope for further cost reductions going forward,” Terzi said.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. There are at least three factors that could slow or reverse this cost trajectory, the researchers said.
First, space junk poses a growing problem for the launch industry. Space debris is typically zipping at speeds of about 16,800 mph (27,000 km/h), and so can inflict massive damage on anything in orbit. The problem space junk poses gets worse when collisions spawn even more debris, eventually cluttering space with high-speed shrapnel, a scenario nicknamed the “Kessler syndrome” after NASA scientist Donald Kessler, who predicted it in 1978.
Second, at the global level, SpaceX is currently responsible for roughly 75% of the total payload sent to orbit. The investigators noted there are strong economic incentives for a would-be monopolist to charge higher prices to potential clients. This in turn would reduce the total payload sent to orbit, slowing the future evolution of average launch costs.
Finally, the current climate of increasing geopolitical tensions is likely to make governments around the world cautious when it comes to depending too heavily on a single U.S. company for space launch. This may bring back Cold War dynamics, as nations pursue independent access to orbit, even if this means using more expensive home-based rocket technology, the researchers said.
All in all, “there is a strong feeling, perhaps exemplified by the recent record-breaking mega-IPO of SpaceX, that space is at a structural break point — a moment where trends are accelerating,” Terzi said. “Forecasting at moments of structural break is very hard in general, and therefore also in our case.”
The scientists detailed their findings July 14 in the journal PNAS Nexus.