Homegrown drugmakers, which entered the generic semaglutide market with ambitious first-year revenue goals, are quietly paring sales targets, underscoring tepid prescription growth and weaker-than-expected patient retention, said industry executives.
Several companies that had initially set annual sales estimates of ₹100-150 crore from their GLP-1 portfolios are bracing for a 25-30% downward revision, amid sluggish adoption by physicians, price competition with innovator molecules, patient drop-offs, and device-related complexity.
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There is currently an inventory buildup of more than ₹100 crore with stockists and wholesalers.
Executives said the biggest concern is prescription growth appears to have plateaued after the first month surge, though in a new category, prescriptions tend to rise sharply for the first several months.
GLP-1 drugs slimming down
Experts highlighted that a major surprise factor was innovator Novo Nordisk’s sharp price cuts, which wasn’t anticipated by domestic generics makers.“Indian companies were expecting to launch at much higher price points, but the subsequent price war compressed the market much earlier than anticipated and made profitability more challenging,” said Rajiv Kovil, a Mumbai-based diabetologist.
While cheaper than Novo Nordisk’s products, generic semaglutide costs Rs 2,000-4,000 for a month’s treatment—high by Indian standards in terms of affordability.
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“Also, the fact that prescription growth has flattened suggests retention and patient continuation are not yet where the industry expected them to be,” said Kovil.
The unfolding developments has led those planning to roll out GLP-1 drugs in the second wave of launch in a wait-and-watch mode, said executives. “New brand launches may be deferred by a few months since the strength of the first wave is waning fast,” an executive said. “A revival may be seen only in the fiscal third or fourth quarter.”