Data from Kpler showed India imported an average of 2.66 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia between June 1 and June 19, up from 1.91 million bpd in May. The increase further strengthened Russia’s position as India’s largest crude supplier.
Also Read: 3 Indian-flagged oil tankers transit through Strait of Hormuz
Imports from the UAE stood at 636,000 bpd during the same period, only slightly below the record 644,000 bpd imported in May. Venezuela emerged as India’s fourth-largest crude supplier with shipments of 209,000 bpd, behind Saudi Arabia, which supplied 384,000 bpd.
In contrast, imports from the United States declined sharply to 91,000 bpd in June from 252,000 bpd in May.
The latest import trends reflect efforts by Indian refiners to diversify sourcing and maintain supply security during a period of disruption in global energy markets. Russian crude has continued to attract buyers because of discounted prices, while additional supplies from the UAE helped offset concerns over shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz disruption reshaped India’s energy sourcing
India, the world’s third-largest importer of energy, relies heavily on the Gulf region for crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Energy flows were disrupted after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz following military action involving the United States and Israel. The waterway is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, carrying around one-fifth of global oil consumption and serving as the main export route for major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar.
Shipping activity through the strait began recovering late last week after the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. However, concerns over the durability of the arrangement remain after Iranian officials accused Israel of violating the truce.
LPG likely to recover first
According to Sumit Ritolia, Senior Manager – Modelling at Kpler, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have varying effects across energy commodities, with LPG likely to benefit first.
“A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) would represent a major milestone for global energy markets, but the impact on India is likely to vary significantly across commodities,” he said.
“While India remains one of the largest importers of Middle Eastern hydrocarbons (crude, LPG, and LNG), crude and LNG imports have proven relatively resilient throughout the disruption, unlike LPG, which has been the most severely affected.”
Ritolia said LPG supplies were hit hardest during the disruption, while crude oil and LNG imports proved more resilient because buyers were able to tap alternative suppliers and shipping routes.
He expects recovery to occur in phases.
“Under our base case of a gradual reopening from early July, the initial focus will be on clearing trapped cargoes and restoring shipping flows before Gulf exporters can materially increase exports,” he said.
According to Ritolia, LPG shipments are likely to normalise first, followed by LNG and then crude oil imports.
Russia remains central to India’s crude strategy
India imports around 88 per cent of its crude oil requirements, nearly half of its natural gas demand, and roughly 65 per cent of its LPG consumption.
Before the Hormuz disruption, Gulf producers supplied about half of India’s crude imports, nearly two-thirds of its LNG needs and close to 90 per cent of LPG imports.
Recent signs of recovery have already emerged. Three Indian-flagged oil tankers carrying more than 860,000 tonnes of crude oil, along with an Indian LNG carrier, have resumed transit through the strategic waterway following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Despite the gradual reopening, Ritolia expects Russian crude to remain a key pillar of India’s import basket.
He said June imports from Russia are likely to exceed 2.35 million bpd, potentially setting a new record, supported by attractive discounts and stable demand from Indian refiners.
According to him, Russian supplies will continue to play a major role even after shipping conditions in Hormuz fully normalise because of their economic advantages and supply reliability.
Venezuela, Atlantic Basin gain importance
Indian refiners have also expanded purchases from Venezuela and other Atlantic Basin suppliers since March as part of broader diversification efforts.
Venezuelan crude imports are estimated at 300,000-400,000 bpd in June, providing refiners that process heavier grades with an alternative source of supply. However, analysts caution that sanctions-related risks and production constraints continue to create uncertainty around the long-term outlook for Venezuelan exports.
US emerges as alternative LPG supplier
The most significant shift during the disruption occurred in the LPG market.
The United States has strengthened its position as an important supplier to India after Gulf shipments were disrupted, aided by a long-term supply agreement signed last year. While the strategy improved supply diversification, it also resulted in higher freight costs because of longer shipping routes.
Ritolia expects Gulf producers to gradually reclaim some market share as normal shipping patterns return. However, he believes India’s supplier base is likely to remain more diversified than it was before the crisis.
The recent disruption accelerated efforts by Indian buyers to reduce concentration risks. While refiners increased crude purchases from Russia, Brazil and Venezuela, LNG buyers sourced additional cargoes from countries including Oman, Nigeria and the United States.
According to Ritolia, a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz should help lower freight costs, ease supply risks and support softer global energy prices. However, he cautioned that a complete return to pre-crisis trade flows may take several weeks or even months as shipping companies, insurers and traders gradually regain confidence in the route.