Poor rainfall typically leads farmers to reduce cattle numbers because of shortages of fodder and water, lowering milk output and pushing up prices.
Major dairies, including Amul, Mother Dairy and Parag Milk Foods, increased milk prices by 2-3% in May. Tamil Nadu’s Aavin has meanwhile cut supplies amid the impact of heatwaves.
“Milk prices have already increased by around 2-3% and, if rainfall remains below normal in key milk-producing regions, a further 3-4% increase is possible by July,” said Parag Milk Foods chairman Devendra Shah. The company owns the Go Cheese and Govardhan brands.
The Maharashtra government has advised farmers to boost fodder production, while several dairy companies are working with cattle owners on fodder planning.
“The possibility of a fodder shortage in the near future cannot be ruled out due to El Nino,” said Kiran Patil, commissioner, animal husbandry, Maharashtra. “To ensure this situation does not affect livestock and milk production, all livestock farmers in the state should remain alert from now on and plan for fodder crops.”
Amul said it would assess the monsoon’s progress before taking a view, adding that the fodder situation is not yet a cause for concern.”There is no immediate impact of El Nino on the availability of milk,” said Jayen Mehta, managing director of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation, owner of the Amul brand. “Any impact of deficient rainfall is usually restricted to certain regions rather than affecting the entire country.”
Mother Dairy said it is monitoring conditions across procurement regions and preparing mitigation measures where necessary.
“We are closely monitoring developments across our procurement network on a state-by-state basis and are working on appropriate mitigation measures wherever required,” said Jayatheertha Chary, managing director, Mother Dairy.