Largest shortages in cancer workforce in 2050 could be nurses, diagnostic specialists: Study

A comprehensive scale-up of the global cancer workforce could reduce cancer mortality by over 50% across 55 countries, including those in South Asia, according to studies published in The Lancet Oncology journal. Scaling up of surgeons was projected to yield the largest reduction in global cancer mortality of 3.64%, especially in Africa, Asia and Oceania, while scaling up the workforce cadres of diagnostic and imaging personnel could yield the largest reduction of 7.61%.

“[A] comprehensive scale-up of all workforce levels was projected to reduce cancer mortality by over 50% in 55 countries, most notably in Africa, central America, and southern Asia,” an international group of authors, including those from the U.S.’ Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Australia’s La Trobe University and University of Sao Paulo in Brazil, said.

A Lancet Oncology Commission report projects the world to be short by 100 million workers in the field of cancer care by 2050, even as cancer cases are likely to increase 21% up to 2050 with low and middle-income countries set to bear the brunt.

“The global cancer workforce shortage is projected to reach about 100 million in 2050, with the largest shortages being for nurses (65 million) and diagnostic (radiology and pathology) specialists (16 million), especially in Africa and Asia,” the authors wrote.

In 2050, an analysis of survival data from multiple studies shows the lowest rates in Africa (34.4%) and Asia (38.7%), and highest in North America (63.9%) and Oceania (over 70%).

“(A) shortage of well-trained personnel to deliver cancer care and conduct research remains a major obstacle to reducing disparities in cancer survival between high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs),” the report says.

Work needs to be done now to invest in the technology and workforce development needed to handle the increase in cancer diagnoses in the future, the researchers said.

Author Andrew Scott, professor at Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute, La Trobe University, said, “Identifying gaps in the workforce for imaging of cancer patients is essential to ensuring correct diagnoses and treatments are available for patients in all countries.” The commission report calls for urgent national and global action, including a stronger workforce planning, targeted investment in training and expanded access to diagnostic and treatment services to meet growing demand.

The report finds that scaling up the cancer workforce could avert up to 170 million deaths and cut mortality by about 40%, while delivering economic benefits to the tune of $120 trillion between 2030 and 2050, “translating to a global return on investment of $4 per $1 invested”.

The authors also called for an establishment of workforce and cancer registries and creating cross-sector and international partnerships to improve access to education and research training programmes as well as diagnostics, therapeutics, and equipment.