Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting a “turning point” was imminent after more than four years of war.
Russian forces have made grinding gains since their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but the advances have slowed this year and Ukrainian troops are increasing pressure on the battlefield to try to push them back.
Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, who commands Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, one of Ukraine’s most respected fighting forces, told Reuters in an interview that he believes Russia’s army is exhausted and incapable of making major breakthroughs.
If Ukraine’s military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it does not yet occupy, he said.
“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point,” Biletsky said at an undisclosed underground location in the northeastern Kharkiv region.
“More precisely, I think the next six are the most critical,” he said.
The issue of who controls Donetsk has been a stumbling block in U.S.-backed peace talks that have stalled, with Russia wanting the entire region and Ukraine refusing to withdraw from territory that Moscow’s troops have been unable to conquer.
“We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength – not weakness – about a truly stable truce,” said Biletsky, a right-wing political leader who founded the battle-hardened Azov Battalion and now commands tens of thousands of troops.
“From a military point of view, this is realistic.”
Russia’s Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed victory in Ukraine and said this month he thinks the war is nearing an end.
‘CRITICAL’ MONTHS AHEAD
Russia’s advances have been complicated by a decision by billionaire Elon Musk to deny Moscow’s forces access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service. Kyiv has meanwhile stepped up medium-range drone attacks on Russian air defenses and logistics, helping more long-range strikes get through to hit oil and military facilities in Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week Ukraine had retaken nearly 600 square km (230 square miles) of territory in 2026. Reuters could not independently verify the figure. Moscow currently controls almost one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
Assessing the military situation, John Helin of the Finland-based Black Bird conflict-analysis group echoed Biletsky in saying fatigue was a problem for Russian forces, while Ukraine’s war effort is hampered by a manpower shortage.
“It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it’s much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point,” he told Reuters.
On Monday, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Kyiv’s forces were now “actively challenging the positional character of the war” and could soon be capable of staging limited mechanized assaults.
‘FORTRESS BELT’
Russian troops are bearing down on eastern Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” where fighting is raging inside the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, its southern end.
The constellation of heavily fortified cities anchors Ukrainian defenses. Capturing it would position Russia to threaten the rest of the Donbas.
Biletsky, whose forces hold over one-tenth of the total front line, said his troops were firmly holding the flank around Sloviansk, the belt’s northern bastion, and forcing Russia to attack the city head-on.
Such costly assaults have helped drain Russian forces and led to heavy losses of field commanders, he said, in what he described as a professional degradation of Moscow’s military.
“The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did, for example, a year ago,” said Biletsky.
Biletsky said it was too early to draw conclusions from Kyiv’s recent success, but that Ukraine could capitalize on it by continuing mid-range attacks and advancing “carefully”.
Moscow is “radically losing” in battlefield communications because of Musk’s crackdown on use of Starlink, Biletsky said.
But he described the sides at parity in evolving technology – with Ukraine leading in unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and heavy bomber drones, and Russia winning the race for fibre-optic drones, which cannot be jammed.
A potential blueprint for a modernized Ukrainian army, his corps has led efforts to transform training and integrate new technology such as UGVs as an important part of its battlefield strategy.
Biletsky’s units lead the way in deploying stealthy kamikaze drones and robots armed with machine guns or rocket launchers to replace significant portions of infantrymen, aiming for 30% by 2027, he said.
The next “revolution” will allow commanders to stage more “creative” combined assault operations while conserving precious troops, Biletsky said.
“It will happen this year, and I think we’ll show how our corps is a vivid example of it,” he said.