Iceland’s foreign minister has said she fears her country faces a “Brexit moment” in its looming EU referendum amid warnings over misinformation, foreign interference and AI.
With just over three months to go until Iceland votes on whether or not to continue accession talks with the EU, developments are being closely watched by Washington, Moscow and Brussels.
Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir accused individuals and groups from inside and outside the country of “fearmongering”, saying Iceland was being hit with misinformation and rhetoric taken “from the playbook of Nigel Farage and Reform”.
She said the referendum was at risk of being a target for Russia and “actors who seek to influence our public debate in a negative way”. Foreign interference and the spread of misinformation could end up affecting the result, the minister warned.
“I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment,” she told the Guardian. “That would be, from my point of view, a rather dangerous path because … there were all kinds of lies put forward by the Brexiteers.” She cited disputed figures used by the leave campaign over how much money the UK sent to the EU.
Þorgerður said Brexit “should be an example of how not to run a campaign” rather than something to be emulated. “Nothing of what they promised has actually been activated or realised,” she said.
The Icelandic coalition government – formed of the left-leaning parties the Social Democratic Alliance and the People’s party, and Þorgerður’s centre-right pro-European Liberal Reform party – surprised many when it announced in March that it would hold the EU referendum on 29 August, having previously said it would do so no later than 2027.
The move was in part motivated by threats from the US, a longtime close ally of Iceland, to forcibly acquire its closest neighbour, Greenland.
Þorgerður said: “For us, from my point of view, the international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure. The world has changed so decisively, I would say, so Greenland has of course affected, or had influence on, our decision.”
Old alliances were being tested, she said, and trade used as a “political weapon”. “You do not treat a friend and an ally like Greenland and Denmark like the US did in the beginning of this year.”
She insisted, however, that Iceland’s relationship with the US remained strong and that it was broadening its alliances. “Iceland being a member of the EU is not contradicting all the good relationship with the US. One thing does not exclude the other thing.”
When they vote in the August referendum, Icelanders will be asked not whether or not they want to join the EU but whether they want their government to resume accession talks with the bloc.
The country first applied for EU membership in 2009 and the following year the council agreed to open accession talks, but in 2013 the Icelandic government pulled out.
If Icelanders vote yes, talks will resume, and if a deal is reached, the government will hold a second referendum on whether or not it should be accepted.
Opinion polls show a tight contest. According to a recent survey conducted on behalf of the foreign ministry, 42% of Icelanders were in favour of reopening accession talks and 39% were opposed.
Advocates of joining the EU see it as important for international security and an opportunity for better integration in Europe, while those against warn of the potential impact on fishing, agriculture and Iceland’s sovereignty.
Fishing, which as well as being one of the country’s biggest exports is also deeply rooted in Icelandic culture and identity, is a particularly emotive area of debate.
Þorgerður appealed to Icelandic voters to “make up their own minds” and be careful of their sources. Some political parties were spreading misinformation in the way critics believe Ukip did in the run-up to the UK Brexit referendum, she said.
“It’s like they are having the playbook from Nigel Farage and Reform, and of course that is concerning,” she said.
A spokesperson for Reform said: “Reform UK has no connection to Iceland.” They added: “We wish them well in staying outside of the EU.”
Þorgerður’s comments come after the prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, warned that foreign influence in the referendum would “not be tolerated, whether from the European Union, China, Russia or the United States”.
The president, Halla Tómasdóttir, issued a warning about the dangers of AI, which she said “can instantly produce content that appears credible but is misleading, spread unverified information at breakneck speed, and influence our opinions and wellbeing in ways we are not always aware of”.
Hafsteinn Einarsson, an associate professor at the University of Iceland who focuses on AI, said he did not think Iceland was equipped to clearly inform the public about the referendum. He has found that AI models often answer popular questions on the referendum in Icelandic using unreliable sources, while it is increasingly easy for people to mass-produce misinformation using AI.
“This is what I am worried about: that people who are seeking information ask their AI model … about the referendum and issues related to the referendum and then they are presented with an answer and they might not even check the sources, because they trust AI, and then many of them just take this as fact,” Einarsson said.