Turkey’s next presidential election is scheduled for 2028. Many think it will come sooner. But by the time ballots are actually cast, the outcome may already have been decided – especially after the last few days.
On Thursday, an appeals court removed the head of the opposition Republican People’s party (CHP), Özgür Özel, by annulling its 2023 leadership contest. The 51-year-old was credited with reviving the CHP, which trounced the ruling Justice and Development party in 2024’s local elections. He was also one of the few senior figures not caught in a sweeping crackdown that has led to hundreds of CHP officials and politicians being arrested. Human Rights Watch says that the justice system has been weaponised against the opposition. A mass corruption trial opened in March, with defendants including the Istanbul mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, who was arrested last year on the day that he was chosen as the CHP’s presidential candidate. He could face a sentence of more than 1,900 years if convicted on all counts.
Thursday’s decision was widely seen as an effort to further subdue and split the CHP, which called it a “judicial coup”. Mr Özel’s unpopular predecessor Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – who lost the 2023 election to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan despite a surge in opposition to the president – has been reinstated.
Mr Erdoğan has pursued an increasingly authoritarian path since coming to power in 2003, notably following the Gezi Park protests in 2013 and especially the coup attempt 10 years ago. He pushed through constitutional changes that replaced the parliamentary system with a highly centralised presidential one. His acolytes control the media. Civil society has been pummelled. On Thursday, he signed a decree closing a private university known as a centre of liberal views.
There is a two-term presidential limit, but Mr Erdoğan would be able to run again in the event of early elections. His detente with Kurds could also bring support from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy party to change the constitution. The bleak state of the economy is unlikely to improve given Turkey’s heavy dependence on fuel imports.
Mr Erdoğan has presented himself as the solution to problems he created. But the soaring cost of living is eroding support. The central bank raised this year’s inflation target from 16% to 24% this month. The stock market plunged by 6% after Mr Özel’s disqualification was announced, and the lira hit record lows, although there was a recovery on Friday . Announcing another tax amnesty won’t ease economic woes or attract foreigners to invest in this uncertain legal and political climate.
The president has maintained support at home and compliance abroad by skilfully managing a complex international environment, including the wars in the Gulf and Ukraine, and Syrian fragility. On Thursday, Donald Trump praised a “tough guy” who has “done a very good job”. For the EU, once a key source of pressure, the priority is now Ukraine. And as Mr Özel has angrily pointed out, Sir Keir Starmer and Labour – another centre-left party – had little to say about Mr İmamoğlu’s arrest.
That is a mistake. Democracy does not disappear overnight; it is chipped away over months, years and decades. There may be no significant concerns about the casting and counting of votes at Turkey’s next election. However, democracy is not only determined by what happens on the day, but by who gets to stand and whether they can be heard. Without pushback, the next contest is being decided already.